Currently, more preliminary DAC tests are being carried out. The first ever commercial pilot was launched in Germany in the summer of 2025, while in Sweden the ability of DAC to work under extreme weather conditions was tried. Currently Austrian Rail Cargo Group is testing DAC on different types of wagons and will continue to do so for the whole of 2026.

The DAC cost problem

One of the main points raised by DAC critics is the cost and who will have to bear them. Given the lack of clear guidelines from EU institutions, estimations vary and seem to be increasing each time they are reviewed. Currently, many agree that equipping a unit should cost between 22,000 and 25,000 euros, while the total cost of the project is somewhere around 15 billion euros.

Currently, there is a total of 12 freight trains that run on the Oslo-Bergen route daily.

“In general, we experience that our customers want to move more of their volume from road to rail. Deliveries on the Bergen Line have also been stable since spring 2025, without closures and disruptions that stop the flow of transport on the railway, says Commercial Director Carl Fredrik Karlsen at CargoNet. “The start of the year has been good, and our volumes on the Bergen Line in the first two months are 20 percent higher than last year.”

Functioning infrastructure

The topic of closures and disruptions is a delicate one in Norway. It is a major obstacle to the modal shift. In the absence of major infrastructural improvements, Norwegian rail freight companies would go out of business, OnRail’s CEO had claimed earlier. When things do work, results like the 60% modal share are attainable.

Part of the Oslo-Bergen success story also has to do with Norway’s geography. “We see that the Bergen Line, together with the Ofot Line, is the section that is most resistant to competition from road traffic”, commented OnRail CEO Henning Aandal. “This is due to the fact that the Bergen Line crosses the high mountains between east and west. This of course presents challenges for both road and rail, but in general the rail is more robust than the roads on this section.” Moreover, rail also provides faster transit than road transportation.

To illustrate, CargoNet made an operational loss of 200 million Norwegian crowns (17 million euros) in 2024. That won’t be the case in 2025: “The results are more positive in 2025, mainly driven by the effects of the compensation scheme – in addition, we are experiencing better demand from the market. Part of this picture is also driven by the bankruptcy of our competitor BLS halfway through the year”, the state company comments.

CargoNet points to infrastructure closures, such as on the Dovre line, as being the biggest obstacle to profitability. The reopening of that line has shown CargoNet that rail freight operations can be profitable if the infrastructure works, the company tells RailFreight.com.

Interest rate cuts

Similarly, private operator OnRail is rather positive about 2025, especially after the Rauma line was reinstated in October. Its CEO Henning Aandal also points out that the Norwegian Central Bank cut the interest rate twice in 2025, allowing for more consumer spending. That has had a positive impact on the intermodal market segment.

If OnRail succeeds in attaining a positive net result for 2025, then it will be the first company to do so. “We would be smiling more than ever”, comments Aandal – who also points out that OnRail managed that once before, in 2021.

Both Onrail and CargoNet seem to have benefited from the bankruptcy of competitor BLS Rail. Henning Aandal explains that with its entry into the market, BLS Rail did not expand the market, but only captured market share from the existing operators. BLS’ bankruptcy therefore removed overcapacity from the market.

Old and new money

The scheme suggested by the Norwegian ministry of transport and communications aims at compensating companies for revenue losses linked to these closures. For the interruptions of traffic along the Dovre Line, the government allocated 5,9 million euros (70 million NOK). The ministry has proposed to use these funds also to compensate for financial losses linked to the closure of the Rauma Line.

For the Nordlands Line, Norway’s longest line, the Norwegian ministry pledged to introduce a compensation scheme between 12,7 and 16,9 million euros (150-200 million NOK). “The Government will return with more detailed budget requirements in connection with the revised national budget for 2026”, the ministry specified. Despite a projected reopening of the line for next summer, there is no exact date set as of yet.

The introduction of a compensation scheme was warmly welcomed by Onrail, one of the largest rail freight operators in Norway. “This is good reading for the employees of Onrail, who have been extraordinarily affected by closed railway lines over the past two years. The government should be commended for having taken care of the freight train industry”, the company said on LinkedIn.

In other words, the line is located in sparsely populated territory, not usually associated with great economic or political importance. But the Iron Ore Line is different, the name reveals why: it is a key artery for mining products from the area.

LKAB, the largest mining company in the region, calls the railway “a critical link in the green transition” and cites its “crucial importance for Europe’s future economic development and access to critically important raw materials”.

The share of Iron Ore Line freight in Sweden

Its large role in Swedish rail freight is reflected in the country’s annual statistics reports. It has separate datasheets with and without ore transportation on the Iron Ore Line. Due to their sheer volume, including the ores might paint a skewed picture of rail freight elsewhere in the country.

Out of the total rail freight volume of 68,3 million tonnes in 2023, 25,7 million tonnes was ore on just the Iron Ore Line (37,6%). The impact of the derailments in early 2024 also immediately became clear. In contrast to other rail freight transportation in Sweden, which grew by 2,2%, ore traffic on the Iron Ore Line shrank by 12%.

Rail disruptions = fewer mining products

The numbers show that the Iron Ore Line is economically crucial to Sweden, despite being a single-track railway in a remote area on the periphery of the country and the continent as a whole. Without it, the mines would not be able to export their products in the same way, leading to reductions in output.

That is exactly what happened after the derailments in 2024: “In view of the limited capacity on the Iron Ore Line, during the quarter LKAB decided to cut back production of finished products by around a million tonnes on an annual basis. As part of optimising mine production in the operating locations it was also announced that production in Konsuln, which is adjacent to the Kiruna mine, is being mothballed”, the company explained.

That wraps it up regarding the situation as it is today. Yet, the Iron Ore Line will -most likely- grow even further in importance. That has everything to do with Europe’s ambition for “strategic autonomy” and a shift away from China. Beijing has control over the world’s largest rare earth mineral reserves, and as of 2024, China produced around 70% of all rare earth oxides.

New rare earth mineral deposit

Europe wants to be more independent, and that includes raw material independence. It just so happens to be that Sweden discovered large rare earth mineral deposits close to the existing mines in the north. A blessing for Sweden, but also a blessing for Europe, which expects a 500% increase in the rare earth mineral demand by 2050. By 2030, Sweden has the potential to meet approximately 18% of that demand.

This would make Sweden a key supplier for the continent, while also contributing to Europe’s goal of reducing its reliance on China. However, mining operations in the new deposit are expected to start only 10 to 15 years from now. And for comparison: Sweden has found one million tonnes worth of rare earth minerals, whereas China has a reserve of 44 million tonnes.

The rare earth factor, even if it is something for the long term, comes on top of the already existing mining output in the area: Sweden is Europe’s leading iron ore producer and fourth largest copper producer. It also mines zinc and lead in other parts of the country.

LKAB too highlights the mines’ role in the green transition and the growing role of the Iron Ore Line: “As the mining industry and steel companies shift towards fossil-free iron and steel, the Ore Railway becomes even more important. The iron from the mines is planned to soon be joined by new important products, critical minerals and metals vital for food production and for European industry.”

The company sees the Iron Ore Line as a critical link for the green transition and for development in the Nordics and Europe. “A vital artery where the pressure from larger volumes of goods and new residents will increase dramatically in the coming years.”

NATO and the military

That was it for the economic part. Besides ore transportation, the railway has recently gained a new significance elsewhere. With Sweden’s accession into NATO, the country will need to have its infrastructure in order to facilitate military transports. The key railway line for the country in this context is indeed the Iron Ore Line.

It links up to the Norwegian port of Narvik, which was a major battle theatre in WWII. The central prize was access to Swedish ore all-year round due to freezing in the Bothnia Gulf. In contemporary times, Narvik is also a gateway into the far north areas of Europe. That makes it a prime target for NATO adversaries, which also explains why there were so many suspicions of sabotage after derailments in early 2024. From both an economic and military point of view, the Iron Ore Line is being propelled forward into continental significance.

Future-proofing and higher TACs?

In order to future-proof the railway, Sweden is investing. LKAB’s dream of a double track railway across the entire length of the line is out of reach for the time being. Instead, Sweden is betting on station extensions and passing loops to improve capacity. The upgrade plan also involves an axle load improvement to 32.5 tonnes on large sections of the railway.

Sweden’s upgrade plans for the Iron Ore Line are relatively big, in the sense that they don’t fit in the budget. For that reason, Stockholm has tasked the Swedish Transport Administration and infrastructure manager Trafikverket with exploring public-private partnership (PPP) funding, an unusual step to take for Sweden.

It refers to the potential additional funding and more efficient implementation of projects as a justification. In order to generate private interest, however, it is also floating higher track access charges to create revenue streams.

A launch event on 1 October in Madrid featured contributions from the Dutch infrastructure ministry, the Spanish transport ministry, and participants Coop, Ahold Delhaize and Greenyard company Bakker Barendrecht.

The fresh produce sector is feeling the heat

The idea for the Fresh Train came about due to a sense of urgency in the fresh produce sector. “There is significant congestion at key road nodes, lead times are under pressure and there is the demand for more sustainable transport”, explains Eric Mekenkamp, Fresh Train programme manager.

Not only will European transport need to reduce CO2 emissions and meet sustainability targets, but it also encounters structural challenges such as driver shortages in the road sector. The railways could help overcome those challenges.

The outcome of the pilot train will become clear after “a couple of months to a year”, when specific attention will be given to the question of reliability. Transit times and the quality of the train service are key. Specific monitoring actions will be put in place for this, says Mekenkamp.

A competitive modal shift

Fresh on Track is clear about its goal: a modal shift from road to rail for fresh produce. Rail freight insiders will know how much of a challenge that proves to be. Mekenkamp is reassuring: “There is plenty of interest from parties in the fresh produce sector and shippers to load a train. In terms of price and the transit time it is also competitive.”

The Fresh Train also highlights scalability as one of its assets. Even though the pilot project will start with one trip per week, that can be expanded to have more frequent round trips. “The fresh produce sector wants higher frequencies for reliability purposes and daily servicing”, says Mekenkamp. Scalability also applies geographically, with Berlin and Munich being among the possible future destinations.

“Fresh on Track is not only a logistics project – it’s a test case for a broader system shift. If successful, it can provide a blueprint for sustainable, cross-border fresh corridors that reduce CO2, alleviate congestion, and ensure reliable supply chains across Europe”, concludes Mekenkamp.

The company’s CEO, Henning Aandal, explains that such railway closures are costly. “Much like in other parts of Europe, Norwegian rail freight companies are barely profitable, so these incidents have an impact on the sector”, he explains. To make matters worse, the nearby Dovre Line opened only in April 2025 after a closure of 3 months. An ice sheet hit a rail bridge, damaging it enough that trains could no longer pass.

In the past years, there have been even more impactful closures. Aandal notes not only last winter’s stoppage on the Dovre Line, but also a nine-month closure in 2023 and 2024 due to a collapsed bridge. An ice sheet hit a rail bridge, damaging it enough that trains could no longer pass. Moreover, a landslide north of Trondheim also put the so-called Nordlandsbanen out of function.

Money is not everything

The commonality between those incidents is that forces of nature are the primary culprit. Yet, explains Aandal, in the case of the Dovre Line and the track north of Trondheim, engineering and planning also played a key role. “At the Dovre bridge, an excavator changed the river flow, causing the ice sheet to run into the bridge. And north of Trondheim, an excavator caused the landslide in an area with challenging quicklime.”

Politicians and infrastructure manager Bane NOR say that the railways have been underfunded, and that more money is needed to keep infrastructure up to standard. However, money is not everything. “The quality of maintenance is also lacking”, says Aandal, pointing to the maintenance mistakes.

“We, the rail freight operators, are the victims of subpar infrastructure”, the Onrail CEO continues. Since those companies are on the edge of profitability, an improvement in infrastructure reliability will push them over that edge. That would be a major relief for the sector.

“The Ofot Line looks set to become even more important in the years to come, not least in light of the increasing defense cooperation under NATO auspices”, the Norwegian Railways Directorate (Jernbanedirektoratet) highlighted. A stronger Europe, under a military perspective, became a priority in the Union since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The upgrades

Concerning the Narvik rail freight terminal, a first 50% capacity increase was implemented in 2022. “There are plans to expand and develop the terminal area in Narvik even further”, the Jernbanedirektoratet specified. The upgrade here will specifically keep military mobility needs into account.

For the Narvik station, the plan entails the addition of separate tracks at the entrance of Narvik so that LKAB’s iron ore trains can travel on a ‘private’ section. This new bundle will also allow for the transit of 740-metre trains. To increase the axle load from 31 to 32.5 tonnes, the sleepers will be replaced with concrete ones, with tests underway for sleepers made of composite.

Benefits for LKAB

Improving the Ofot Line should also bring development for the transport of iron ore and LKAB, Europe’s largest mining company. LKAB sends some of its ore mined in Kiruna, Sweden, to the port of Narvik along the northern branch of the Iron Ore Line. However, the state of the line has been a problem for the mining giant for a few years now, even leading to the closure of some mines.

The improvements planned in Norway will increase available capacity and axle load, meaning the more and heavier trains can be deployed. In theory, this will create a better infrastructure for LKAB. Sweden is also working on improving the Iron Ore Line, which over the past couple of years saw multiple derailments leading to long closures and the aforementioned problems for LKAB.

Doubling trains to Oslo

Other than benefitting NATO flows and iron ore traffic between Narvik and Sweden, the initiative will provide additional capacity along the Narvik–Oslo axis, the Norwegian Railways Directorate added. “The plan is that it will be possible to run as many as six pairs of trains, each 740 meters long, daily between Oslo and Narvik. This will mean more than a doubling compared to today”, the institution said.

In other words, over the past 23 months, the line has been open only for 12 – it will be 14 out of 25 including the next two months of closure – with a massive negative impact for rail freight. Rail freight operator Onrail uses this line to connect Åndalsnes with Oslo. Already at the beginning of 2025, Onrail’s head Henning Aandal pointed out that the very existence of the sector is constantly threatened by the frequent disruptions along the Norwegian rail infrastructure.

More frequent and more powerful events

Climate change is causing extreme weather events to occur more often and with more intensity, not only in Norway. The main rail link between Italy and France, for example, was closed for 19 months between August 2024 and April 2025 due to a landslide, and then again for one week in July due to a mudslide.

Other than landslides, the European rail freight industry has been dealing with catastrophic floodings increasing in frequency. Over the past few years, heavy rains have often hindered services, especially in southern Europe. To tackle these problems, the International Union of Railways published new recommendations for infrastructure managers in Europe on how to deal with such phenomena.

Notably, the Russian-Finnish border is the longest shared border between Russia and an EU member state, stretching approximately 1,340 kilometres. Prior to the Russian-Ukrainian war, most freight along this route was transported by road. However, after 24 February 2022, most of these road shipments were suspended, although rail deliveries have continued. These have largely consisted of Russian goods not subject to sanctions, such as mineral fertilisers, nuclear fuel, various ores, and similar products.

As rail shipments to Finland remain stable, and with ongoing positive trade dynamics with other neighbouring countries in the north (particularly the Nordic states), Russia plans further development of its railway infrastructure in the region.

Military or civilian rail?

Some Western media, such as the Wall Street Journal, have suggested that Russia prepares for military rail logistics in the area. WSJ specifically referred to the construction of new rail infrastructure close to Finland, Norway and Estonia, claiming that these would serve military supply routes.

By contrast, Russian government officials have denied those reports, claiming that the infrastructure being developed in the north and northwest will be used exclusively for civilian purposes and the transportation of civilian freight.

Meanwhile, RZD is planning to modernise the rail approaches to ports in northwest Russia—particularly those around Saint Petersburg—by 2030. This is expected to increase freight capacity on this corridor by up to 150 million tonnes over the next several years.