China Railway Express trains are growing

Amid this decline, the total number of freight trains under the China Railway Express (CRE) in 2025 was over 20,000 units for the first time, showing a 3.2% increase. However, this growth is no longer tied to Europe. A radical redistribution has occurred, as European destinations now account for only 15.1% of cargo, while the lion’s share – 85%, goes to Russia, Central Asia, and other non-European regions. Asia was the main growth driver, as traffic in this direction grew by 27.7% to 1,13 million TEUs, which is 3.6 times higher than the volume of shipments within the EU.

No competition with the sea

The 7:1 imbalance poses a challenge for carriers, as the return of empty containers leads to serious losses, associated with shipments from China. According to analysts, one of the reasons for such a critical imbalance is the current problems in the German industrial sector. The decline of rail cargo transportations on the China-EU route is also related with general stabilisation of sea transportations (although the current chaos in the Middle East may lead to the future change of the current situation).

While sea freight rates soared in 2024 amid the attacks in the Red Sea, and rail transportations became a temporary solution, the situation normalised in 2025. The sea route became significantly cheaper again and shippers, no longer constrained by tight deadlines, returned to ports.

The situation is also complicated by technical carrying limits of the existing routes on China-EU direction, as approximately 94% of all traffic on this direction traditionally passes through Poland. The two-week blockade on the Polish-Belarusian border in September 2025 demonstrated how vulnerable this route is to any border incidents. In fact, even short stops in such corridors critically undermine customer confidence and force them to build in additional logistics reserves. Weak imports from the EU to China are also adding pressure. European exports are stagnating, and return shipments are declining, significantly worsening the economics of rail routes as a whole.

EU problems

In addition, the decline in exports from the EU, particularly from Germany, indicates that the European economy is finding it increasingly difficult to compete in Asian markets. This is also reflected by the fact that shipments of German engineering and automotive products to China by rail are declining sharply.

Most analysts do not expect a rapid recovery in EU-China transit in 2026. The most likely scenario is stagnation or a moderate decline in volumes. Growth is possible only in certain niches: e-commerce, urgent mid-price cargo, furniture, home decor, and DIY. However, even in these segments, rail transport will not regain its mass character and will remain a niche logistics solution between sea and air.

Alternative routes rising

Analysts also expect the establishment of a new logistics route: China-Central Asia-Russia-Middle East-India, as well as routes to Turkey, Iran, and the Caucasus countries. As for Russia, it is shifting from its role as a transit bridge between China and Europe to that of a major Eurasian distribution hub servicing trade within Greater Eurasia.

The most promising routes are the North-South international transport corridor, the China-Central Asia-Russia-Turkey routes, intra-Eurasian trade, and e-commerce flows. Key risks for the EU-China corridor include ongoing geopolitical instability in Eastern Europe, the possibility of new restrictions on the Polish-Belarusian border, weak economic growth in the EU, and the active development of alternative routes bypassing Russia and Belarus.

In addition, the current war in the Middle East also poses serious threats. This makes the EU-China corridor through Russia politically sensitive and strategically unstable. That also means under the current circumstances, the EU-China corridor is ceasing to be a mass transport route and is increasingly becoming a niche route for specific categories of cargo.