The rail freight landscape in Europe looks much different from elsewhere. The lead of this article already mentioned Central Asia, where the overarching theme concerns trade route diversification. Building new railways and reaching new destinations is key for economic security and trade potential. RailFreight.com has reported extensively on the various agreements and studies being undertaken to work towards a trans-Afghan railway, for instance.

A similar situation is unfolding in southern Africa. The champion of rail in this region is Zambia: a similarly landlocked country. It will be the beneficiary of not one, not two, but three ongoing rail projects that originate in the country.

TAZARA and Lobito

The first two are the TAZARA (to Dar Es-Salaam, Tanzania) and the Lobito Corridor (to Angola). Both connect Zambia’s inland mines to ocean ports, creating or rehabilitating avenues for exports and economic growth. Whereas the TAZARA is a China-sponsored railway with national Zambian investments leading to Africa’s east coast, investment in the Lobito Corridor is the Western answer to the Chinese infrastructure ambitions in the region.

As a result, Zambia could soon have two functioning rail routes giving it access to the world’s oceans: one leading west, one leading east. Meanwhile, the country is gearing up for a third railway. The Mosetse–Kazungula–Livingstone (MKL) line will connect Zambia to its southern neighbour Botswana through a narrow 150-metre long shared border across the Zambezi river.

While this railway will not link to any coast, it will improve the country’s connectivity to its much richer neighbour. On 1 April, government representatives came together to reaffirm their commitment to building the MKL railway. A favourable situation for Zambia, considering Botswana is a relatively large importer of its copper wires.

A word of advice from Europe

The MKL project aims to enhance trade, connectivity, and regional integration, explains Zambia’s rail operator. MKL will span approximately 430 kilometres, comprising 365 kilometres from Mosetse (Botswana) to border town Kazungula. From Kazungula, it is another 65 kilometres to Livingstone (Zambia). MKL “is expected to improve cargo and passenger movement while reducing transport costs and easing pressure on road infrastructure.”

With rail-port connections to Durban (South Africa), Dar Es-Salaam and Lobito, Zambia looks set transport-wise for exports of valuable mining products. The MKL will improve trade with wealthy Botswana.

While Europe battles with its own rail maladies, the same sector is looking promising for Zambia. A word of advice from our continent: just make sure to keep those track access charges affordable and infrastructure reliable. In that aspect, Zambia may run into familiar problems, remaining dependent on the availability of rail infrastructure across borders.

Meanwhile, Russia also expressed its interest in the project. It is already known that Russia and Uzbekistan are cooperating on a feasibility study, but now Russian businesses are also looking favourably upon the project. According to a government official, Russian car manufacturers are interested in “developing cooperation with Afghan partners in terms of deliveries of freight and passenger vehicles.” To make that possible, Russia is willing to deliver modern equipment and rolling stock for the railway.

International North – South Transport Corridor

Afghanistan, for its part, is naturally satisfied with the international interest in a cross-country line. In order to give it some more weight, it is looking to join the International North – South Transport Corridor together with Pakistan. The latter’s authorities have reportedly presented calculations for new transport corridor branches – their lengths, necessary budgets, and lists of development measures.

Reportedly, the railway is supposed to start at the Turkmen border in the northwest, go through the city of Herat and continue on to Pakistan. Such a route would provide the landlocked Central Asian countries with a direct rail connection to the Indian Ocean.

A long way off still

Besides Kazakhstan, Russia and Uzbekistan have taken tangible steps towards making rail in Afghanistan a reality. The two countries signed an agreement to research the economic viability of various possible routes through Afghanistan, which includes the route that is reportedly getting the Kazakh investment.

More money is most definitely needed to build the railway. The Eurasian Development Bank earlier came to the conclusion that it would cost nearly 5 billion dollars – a long way off still. If Kazakhstan confirms its 500 million dollar investment, the counter will be at around 750 million dollars, based on publicly available information.

Earlier, the Eurasian Development Bank came to the conclusion that a Trans-Afghan rail link connecting Uzbekistan and Pakistan would cost around 4,8 billion dollars. Russia and Uzbekistan are assessing two variations of the route: a western variant through Afghanistan’s lower lying lands and a shorter route through the more difficult terrain in the northeast.

To the Indian Ocean

The most likely of those two options seems to be the western option. Earlier, Afghanistan signed contracts worth over 250 million dollars to develop that rail corridor. Neighbouring Turkmenistan, as well as Kazakhstan, have expressed interest in helping Afghanistan develop that line. It could help the landlocked countries get a better connection with the Indian Ocean.

On the other hand, the service from India used an equally familiar route, which could be defined as the eastern route of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC). The new container train service departs from the Indian-operated Bandar Abbas port in southern Iran, and after crossing the country’s territory, it reaches Sarakhs on the border with Turkmenistan. From there, Turkmen operators take over cargo transport to the Chukursai freight station in Tashkent, which Russian FESCO operates.

Things are moving in Asia

These two new services are significant considering the broader context in which they have been launched. The India-Uzbekistan container service is the result of multiple tests and hurdles overcome within the INSTC during the past two-and-a-half years. Apparently, as the service’s Turkmen organisers underlined, this Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan link will not only be reduced to cargo coming from India since it is also open to other ‘third countries’, hinting at Russia.

On the other hand, China’s determination to include Uzbekistan in its rail-oriented supply chains is apparent with the recently launched railway service via Kazakhstan. China is investing in the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan line anyway. However, utilising the good synergies with KTZ until this line is available and operational indicates that Uzbekistan has a role to play in the future also in anticipation of the upcoming Trans-Afghan railway.

To its north, landlocked Central Asian countries see opportunities for rail routes towards the Indian Ocean, a potentially lucrative economic investment. Meanwhile, Afghanistan is widely perceived to be a fragile state and a potential threat to the region. A country like Kazakhstan, writes The Diplomat, sees economic cooperation as a way to strengthen ties and bolster regional stability and security. Uzbekistan also maintains that talking to its southern neighbour is the best way forward.

Rail projects

A multitude of rail projects are now in development that reflect this renewed interest in Afghanistan. For example, Uzbekistan seeks to build a direct rail connection to Pakistan traversing the Afghan mountains, which it originally proposed in 2018. The line would be an extension of a 75-kilometre railway already under construction from the Uzbek border to Mazar-e-Sharif in northern Afghanistan.

Taliban representatives visited the Uzbek capital of Tashkent in February this year, where they signed a memorandum of understanding with the host country. The parties agreed on a feasibility study for the so-called Trans-Afghan railway between Uzbekistan and Pakistan. A tangible step towards its realisation.

Kazakh-Uzbek cooperation

A month later, in March of this year, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan agreed to establish a joint venture to develop the Trans-Afghan railway. The former signalled its readiness to provide domestically produced railway construction materials as well as rolling stock for the operation of the route.

However, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan do not always see eye to eye on Afghanistan logistics. In particular, Kazakhstan uses a rail route to Afghanistan that bypasses Uzbekistan through Turkmenistan, because Uzbekistan imposes too high fees on transiting Kazakh grain. This is costly to the Kazakhs, for whom Afghanistan is the third largest grain buyer. Consequently, Kazakhstan is now also looking to build a grain terminal on the Turkmen-Afghan border.

Across the ocean

Russia and Belarus have now also joined the growing group of countries interested in a trans-Afghanistan line. For these two, such a line could enhance opportunities to cope with Western sanctions, much like the similar International North-South Transport Corridor. In late April, the countries joined an international high-level meeting on the development of a Belarus-Pakistan corridor, with a connection to the Indian Ocean in mind.

On the other side of the Persian Gulf, Qatar and the UAE are also keen on involvement. The two will partake in consultations on the Uzbekistan-Pakistan line, because it allows for a faster overseas connection with Central Asia. The Hindustan Times reports that Qatar is even providing Uzbekistan with much-needed funding to bring the Trans-Afghan railway to fruition.

Try-outs for the ocean-crossing route have now also started in late April. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan have officially launched a pilot for the Trans-Afghan route, although not yet entirely via rail, with a final overseas connection to Jebel Ali Port in the UAE. The pilot suggests that the countries are serious about making the Trans-Afghan route a reality. If successful, it could reduce travelling times tenfold and make transport more financially viable.

Is it realistic?

While nearly a dozen countries take an interest in the route and a pilot has been launched, questions about its implementation remain. The relatively small Central Asian economies may not be able to afford an expensive railway across mountainous Afghanistan, although oil-rich Qatar has reportedly stepped in with funding. Moreover, it is unclear if the Taliban could guarantee safe travelling along the route in a fragile security environment. Lastly, some countries could be wary of losing international reputation for cooperating with an internationally recognised terrorist organisation.

However, other national interests might take precedence. For example, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan would like to diversify their transportation routes, bring down travelling times and costs, and bet on improving regional stability through economic cooperation with Afghanistan. Moreover, Belarus and Russia want to find alternative transportation routes out of sight of Western monitoring.

Lastly, the Taliban itself is keen on reducing its international isolation. International interest in Afghan rail provides an opportunity to improve its economic position by becoming a transit hub, not only for such things as Kazakh grain, but also for energy products flowing to South Asia. The Taliban have already stated they want to build an energy hub to that end. However, whether or not this international interest will suffice for an extended Afghan rail network remains to be seen.

Also read:

• Russia and Iran finalising Rasht-Astara agreement
• The Middle Corridor remains too expensive as an alternative China-Europe route
• Kazakhstan, China and Russia building transport hub near Moscow